Afghans Look Warily at Future Without U.S.

Updated Dec. 2, 2013 8:59 p.m. ET

Afghanistan Contemplates Life Without the U.S. President Hamid Karzai’s insistence on delaying a crucial security deal with the U.S. is making Afghans consider a future without American support. Margherita Stancati talks to the businessmen and residents of Kabul. Photo: AP

KABUL—The asking price for a house in Kabul’s toniest district nearly doubled a week ago, after it became clear that an Afghan assembly would endorse a new security deal with the U.S. A day later, when President Hamid Karzai insisted on delaying the critical pact, the price plummeted back to its previous level.
“Everyone will flee if the security agreement is not signed. Everyone will stop renting houses,” said Shafiqullah Mohammadi, who is handling the property. The 37-year-old real-estate agent said he plans to emigrate as well if the deal—necessary to maintain U.S. troops and U.S. aid beyond 2014—isn’t sealed.

Soldiers guarding the Loya Jirga last month. President Karzai shocked the assembly by delaying approval of a security deal they had just approved. Reuters

Until recently, Afghans and U.S. officials alike assumed that, despite Mr. Karzai’s posturing, an agreement would eventually be reached. But now, they are beginning to confront the real possibility that American support may completely vanish in the coming months—potentially precipitating the collapse of a state that has few other sources of sustenance.
Few politicians in Kabul voiced support for the president’s stance. Even one of his brothers, Mahmood Karzai, has sounded an alarm.
“Already, this is damaging the economy a great deal—the economy will completely collapse if it’s not signed,” said Mahmood Karzai, who was instrumental in President Karzai’s 2009 re-election campaign. “He has to sign it, he has no choice. If he doesn’t, I think it will be very dangerous. People will mobilize against him.”
The loudest praise for Mr. Karzai came from the Taliban insurgents. “If he is sincere in his opposition, it seems he has realized the truth. May God make his opposition genuine and based on Afghan pride,” the Taliban said on Monday. They added that a full U.S. withdrawal would “pave the ground for an understanding among Afghans.”
Time is running out: The White House last week said that the security deal must be signed by the end of this year or planning for the so-called zero option—full withdrawal of the remaining U.S. forces from Afghanistan by Dec. 31, 2014—would begin.
A complete pullout of American forces would jeopardize the combined $8 billion a year the U.S. and its Western allies have pledged to prop up the Afghan economy and pay for its army and police, according to the White House.
“Zero is not an option for us,” U.S. Ambassador James Cunningham explained to Afghan reporters on a visit to the western city of Herat last Wednesday. “It could be a consequence of decisions that your government takes or doesn’t take.”
The collapse of a similar agreement led the U.S. to withdraw all of its troops from Iraq in 2011. Since then, Iraq has suffered from an escalation of sectarian violence—even though Iraq, unlike Afghanistan, can rely on oil wealth to pay for its own military.
“We should learn from Iraq. They didn’t reach an agreement with the Americans, and now look at their situation,” said Sayed Sulaiman Ahmadi, a 21-year-old law student in Kabul. “Once we have a strong army we’ll have no need for them, but right now we don’t have anything.”
There is another ominous precedent in Afghanistan itself: the precipitous collapse of the Soviet-backed regime of President Najibullah in 1992. His well-equipped forces fractured after Moscow’s funding and fuel ran out, accelerating a devastating civil war that destroyed Kabul, drew in rival mujahedeen factions, and eventually brought the Taliban to power.
“I see history repeating itself,” said Fawzia Koofi, a prominent lawmaker from northeastern Afghanistan. “I very much hope we don’t repeat our failed history.”
On Sunday, Mr. Karzai accused U.S. forces of withholding vitally needed fuel from Afghan troops to pressure him into signing the security deal. Though the coalition denied any interruption, the episode reminded the Afghans of how reliant their 350,000-strong security forces are on American backing.
Farhad, a carpet seller from Kabul who also goes by only one name, and who lived through the 1990s civil war, said Mr. Karzai needs to be aware of that reality.
“He should sign the agreement because our people don’t have good memories of our past rulers, the Taliban and the mujahedeen. It was anarchy at that time,” Mr. Farhad said.
The same fears resonate with young Afghans who have no memory of the civil war. Women in particular worry that the hard-earned freedoms of the past 12 years would be at risk if the foreigners leave and international attention shifts away from Afghanistan.
“The Taliban may come back and Afghan girls won’t be able to go to schools or universities,” says Manizha Babak, a 15-year-old high-school student. “Afghanistan may no longer be a good place to live.”
Already this year, as Mr. Karzai was bargaining with the U.S. and putting forth new demands, the political uncertainty has exacted a toll on the fragile economy. The World Bank projects that economic growth in Afghanistan will have slowed this year to just 3.1%, a steep drop from 14.4% last year.
Western officials warn that without a bilateral security agreement, or BSA, the economy would do even worse, precipitating a further exodus.
The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees is preparing for a scenario in which some 200,000 people leave for neighboring countries next year, factoring in long-standing concerns about security surrounding elections as the current military mission winds down. But the number could be much higher if the U.S. pulls out completely.
“It is all about confidence. And not signing the BSA would be a major psychological blow,” said Richard Danziger, who heads the Afghan mission of the International Organization for Migration, a U.N.-affiliated body.
Mr. Karzai, whose successor is supposed to be chosen in elections slated for April, shocked the Loya Jirga assembly last month by saying that the BSA would have to be signed after the election.
Even though the Loya Jirga had approved it and urged a quick ratification, Mr. Karzai then issued a series of demands, saying that Washington must broker peace between his government and the Taliban, free Afghan prisoners held in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, and immediately end raids on Afghan homes.
Not all Afghans want the U.S. troops to stay. Ahmad Shah, a driver in the southern city of Kandahar, said that foreign forces were “one of the causes of instability” in Afghanistan.
But even among those who are skeptical about keeping a post-2014 U.S. troop presence, many insist that foreign funding for Afghanistan must continue.
“We need a relationship with the international community and especially with the United States,” said Qutbuddin Hilal, a member of the Hezb-e-Islami party founded by anti-U.S. warlord Gulbuddin Hekmatyar. “This is our essential requirement.”
Mr. Hilal is one of the few presidential candidates who hasn’t urged a quick signing of the security deal.
Many of Mr. Karzai’s closest advisers were caught unaware by the president’s decision to postpone signing it. Some of them say they remain confident that the deal will be endorsed by the Afghan leader in time.
“There will be a BSA,” said Omar Zakhilwal, Mr. Karzai’s finance minister. “It is not a crisis. It is about how we manage to create the environment for signing the BSA, and that environment will be created. The position of the president is not that he rejects the BSA.”
But in Washington, lawmakers and senior Obama administration officials alike say they think Mr. Karzai doesn’t fully comprehend the cost of delaying the deal.
Rep. Adam Smith (D., Wash.), the top Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee, said that failure to sign the agreement in time could force the international community to re-evaluate its long-term support for Afghanistan.
“We’d have to rethink everything,” he said.
—Ghousuddin Frotan in Kandahar, Afghanistan, Dion Nissenbaum in Washington and Yaroslav Trofimov in Kabul contributed to this article.
Write to Margherita Stancati at margherita.stancati@wsj.com and Nathan Hodge at nathan.hodge@wsj.com

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